tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-715990029157220962.post4424884732894778713..comments2023-10-19T10:55:19.914-07:00Comments on Robert Bonomo's Blog: 2010: The Doomsday ScenarioUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-715990029157220962.post-10450831615416822872010-01-04T16:23:03.481-08:002010-01-04T16:23:03.481-08:00In all things, thre is a reversion to the mean, bu...In all things, thre is a reversion to the mean, but this mean will be that of man, not of statistics. Individuals, not government, are ultimately responsible for their own survival. Make your plans accordingly, in the conext of whatever is most important to you.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-715990029157220962.post-87322550161956963372010-01-04T15:03:36.758-08:002010-01-04T15:03:36.758-08:00Regarding the IEA announcement, they've been k...Regarding the IEA announcement, they've been known to be way too optimistic, almost comically so. So assume they're off by 5 years and it's really 2015. Another gov. think tank has said it will take 20 years of preparation to move seamlessly into a post-peak-oil world without economic distress. 5 years preparation won't cut it (assuming we actually spend the remaining time preparing), and that's still optimistic in my mind. I'm thinking 2010 will be starting to get expensive, but 2011 will be the real wake-up.Robnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-715990029157220962.post-60727478343606718932010-01-04T14:54:05.003-08:002010-01-04T14:54:05.003-08:00David in Sidney has information, but I don't t...David in Sidney has information, but I don't think it's correct. Tar sands in Canada are cost-effective above $40/barrel at best, $60/barrel is a better estimate. They're supplying something like 25% of American imports, but what about the rest of our imports? Mexico's Cantrell field is in decline, Mexico will be an oil importer soon. Venezuela is moving to heavy oil, Brazil's finds are in very deep water (expensive, and years to produce), off-shore wells and the Arctic oil is sizeable, but still not what we're used to. Oil discoveries peaked in the 60's and what makes headlines today would be considered a pittance back then.<br /><br />No, I think David will have a real wake-up call in a year or two. I don't think it will be a doomsday scenario like Mad Max/Road Warrior, but the U.S. will lose its dominant position in the world, and the global standard of living will fall. It will be interesting to see what happens to China when their huge investments in U.S. dollars crumble in their hands. We will still have oil, but it will be too expensive for farmers to burn it in their tractors and to move cargo ships of American cotton to Pakistan to be made into t-shirts that are shipped back to the U.S. again, along with all the other cheap crap we buy.Robnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-715990029157220962.post-34012979075705776282010-01-03T16:37:37.756-08:002010-01-03T16:37:37.756-08:00If timing is not everything it is very important w...If timing is not everything it is very important when it comes to surviving the scenario about which you write. Many of us have speculated for a long time as to when such events might unfold but find the timing impossible to predict.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-715990029157220962.post-1896770929706136882009-12-31T12:40:11.259-08:002009-12-31T12:40:11.259-08:00Nice article again.Eventualy all natural resources...Nice article again.Eventualy all natural resources are limited,and ist just a matter of time,befor they peak.The time scale can be extended,but not to infinity.<br /><br />And then this above scenario will look cooming to life.Fighter Jethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02739433970119220916noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-715990029157220962.post-75152305165528795762009-12-30T23:50:59.568-08:002009-12-30T23:50:59.568-08:00Peak oil happening soon? I think not: http://netwo...Peak oil happening soon? I think not: http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fpcomment/archive/2008/07/12/abundant-energy-will-power-future-growth.aspx<br /><br />In fact, probably never. Canada's tar sands have enough hydrocarbons to supply the world for centuries at $15 per barrel versus around $5 per barrel from the Middle East. <br /><br />The main reason there is this current peak oil scare and high oil prices is that oil has been so ridiculously cheap for so long that no-one has been investing in the infrastructure needed, either exploring or refining. It's come home to roost for the moment, but will soon be just another historical curiosity, another "running out of resources" scare, like the "Limits to Growth" nonsense of the seventies and eighties.<br /><br />As an environmentalist I believe the anti-capitalist notions of so much of the environmental movement are misguided and seriously lacking in perspective. Capitalism is the only economic system that has helped the poor. And helped WE POOR enormously over the last 300 years for we first world people were third world people originally. <br /><br />Constraining or killing capitalism will impoverish us, lead to more wars and be worse for the environment. Our wealth means that we have far more resources and time to commit to saving the environment. The dive in pollution levels in first world cities over the last 30 years is some proof of that. Also, increasing efficiency in the use of energy in making products has been astounding.<br /><br />And, by the way, violence has been declining precipitously over the last 3 or 4 centuries: http://greatergood.berkeley.edu/greatergood/2009april/Pinker054.php<br /><br />Thank the proven wealth creation engine that is capitalism for all these good things and more. In the end capitalism with all its problems is part of the revolution of freedom. From the perspective of our current high standards (and enormous populations) the alternatives would be disastrous.David in Sydneynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-715990029157220962.post-90111575294202677632009-12-30T14:43:32.419-08:002009-12-30T14:43:32.419-08:00The IEA pronounced that peak oil's coming in 2...The IEA pronounced that peak oil's coming in 2020, the first actual pronouncement from a reputable source fixing an exact date.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com